Coffee is a plant species known for its high sensitivity to progressive climatic changes (DaMatta et al., 2019). Let’s consider the two main coffee species: Coffea Arabica and Coffea Robusta, which are widely cultivated and traded. The ideal temperature range for Arabica coffee is 15–24 °C, while Robusta coffee thrives in temperatures ranging from 22–30 °C (Magrach and Ghazoul 2015). Beyond these temperature ranges, both species experience a decline in bean quality and crop yield (Magrach and Ghazoul 2015). Arabica, known for its higher quality, has a lower optimum temperature range, indicating its increased vulnerability to shifts in climatic conditions, particularly rising temperatures.

The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) outlines various climate change scenarios based on different pathways of social and economic development. These scenarios are further classified into groups known as families, which consist of scenarios sharing certain similarities. According to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC , all scenario families project a temperature increase. The lowest range of increase is estimated to be 1.1 °C–2.9 °C, while the highest range is projected to be 2.4 °C–6.4 °C by 2100, relative to the period of 1980-1999.  These numbers indicate that climate change is highly likely to exert a negative impact on coffee production, particularly for Arabica coffee. Climate change can also indirectly affect coffee production by influencing the frequency and severity of droughts and the occurrence of significant pest and disease outbreaks (Pham et al., 2019).

Academic research has predominantly forecasted a decline in the areas suitable for coffee cultivation as a result of climate change. For instance, Bunn et al. (2015) suggests that by 2050, up to 50% of the optimal coffee-growing areas worldwide could be lost. Lower-altitude coffee-growing regions are expected to experience the most significant decrease in suitability.

Crop yield is also anticipated to decline in numerous coffee-growing countries. For instance, Craparo et al. (2017) indicates that the average coffee yield in Tanzania is projected to decrease to 244±41 kg ha⁻¹ by 2030 (note: kg ha⁻¹ = kilograms per hectare = 0.893 pounds per acre) and further decrease to 145±41 kg ha⁻¹ by 2060.

However, it is worth noting that climate change is also expected to have certain positive effects on coffee production. One positive aspect is that some areas currently deemed unsuitable for coffee cultivation may become suitable due to temperature increases.  Additionally, elevated concentrations of CO₂ associated with climate change have the potential to increase the photosynthetic rate and heat tolerance of coffee plants (DaMatta et al., 2019; Rodrigues et al. 2016). Another beneficial effect is the anticipated increase in bee richness, which can contribute to the growth of pollination activities (Imbach et al. 2017, Roubik, 2002).

What Are the Adaptation Options?

Over 70% of the world’s coffee is produced by smallholder farmers (Rahn et al., 2018) in over 60 tropical countries. These farmers heavily depend on coffee as their primary source of income, making them highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Therefore, successful adaptation to climate change is of paramount importance in ensuring the sustainability of these farmers’ livelihoods. In many coffee-growing countries, adaptation efforts are continuously underway. Some examples of adaptation measures include:

• Developing agroforestry coffee systems, which involve intercropping coffee plants with shade trees (Gomes et al., 2020).
• In areas projected to become unsuitable for coffee cultivation, transitioning to alternative crops.
• Relocating coffee plantations to regions that are more suitable for coffee production.
• Developing coffee varieties that exhibit better tolerance to high temperatures.
• Diversifying cropping patterns or income sources to reduce dependence on coffee alone.
  

In conclusion, climate adaptation is a challenging long-term endeavor, with many adaptation measures requiring years or even decades to yield tangible results. The effectiveness of these strategies hinges upon context-specific climatic and socio-economic factors. Therefore, ensuring successful adaptation for coffee farmers necessitates collaborative efforts from all stakeholders along the coffee value chain. It is crucial to provide farmers with access to credit, information, technology, and the necessary resources. Additionally, the support of governments in coffee-growing countries is vital. By fostering collaboration among stakeholders and receiving support from the governments of coffee-growing countries, the resilience of coffee farmers can be strengthened, enabling them to better confront the challenges posed by climate change within the coffee sector.

References:

Bunn, C, P. Läderach, O. Ovalle Rivera, D. Kirschke (2015).  A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee. Climate Change 129: 89–101.

Craparo, ACW, Van Asten PJA, Läderach P, Jassogne LTP, Grab SW (2015) Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: Global implications. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 207: 1–10.

DaMatta, F. M., Rahn, E., Läderach, P., Ghini, R., & Ramalho, J. C. (2019). Why could the coffee crop endure climate change and global warming to a greater extent than previously estimated? Climatic Change, 152(1):167–178

Gomes, L. C., Bianchi, F. J. J. A., Cardoso, I. M., Fernandes, R. B. A., Filho, E. I. F., & Schulte, R. P. O. (2020). Agroforestry systems can mitigate the impacts of climate change on coffee production: A spatially explicit assessment in Brazil. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 294, N.PAG.

Imbach P, Fung E, Hannah L, Navarro-Racines CE, Roubik DW, Ricketts TH, Harvey CA, Donatti CI, Läderach P, Locatelli B, Roehrdanz PR. Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Sep 26;114(39): 10438-10442. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1617940114. Epub 2017 Sep 11. PMID: 28893985; PMCID: PMC5625888.

Magrach, A., & Ghazoul, J. (2015). Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage. PLoS ONE, 10(7): 1–15.

Pham, Y., Reardon-Smith, K., Mushtaq, S., & Cockfield, G. (2019). The impact of climate change and variability on coffee production: a systematic review. Climatic Change, 156(4): 609–630. 

Rahn, E., Vaast, P., Läderach, P., van Asten, P., Jassogne, L., & Ghazoul, J. (2018). Exploring adaptation strategies of coffee production to climate change using a process-based model. Ecological Modelling, 371: 76–89

Ranjitkar S, Sujakhu NM, Merz J, et al. (2016). Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal. PLoS ONE, 11(9):1-18.

Rodrigues, W. P., Martins, M. Q., Fortunato, A. S., and et al., (2016). Long-term elevated air [CO2] strengthens photosynthetic functioning and mitigates the impact of supra-optimal temperatures in tropical Coffea arabica and C. canephora species. Global Change Biology, 22(1): 415–431

Roubik, D. W. (2002). The value of bees to the coffee harvest. Nature, 417(6890), 708.

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